This
has been kicking around my mind for a while now, and recent thinking about the
future of rail in the UK prompts me to get it down 'on paper' - or whatever the
blog equivalent of that is.
I think that the insurance industry is going to kill off driving as we know it. And they may do it quite soon, and quite suddenly.
We seem to be nearing the point where Google and others are going to get permission to operate driverless cars on our streets. Rigorous testing has been done, and their insurers will have made sure they think this is safe. Indeed, why isn't it going to be safer than having a human playing with their phone, or thinking about the weekend at the wheel? New Scientist has discussed about cars that 'talk' to other nearby cars to effectively 'see' around corners. Humans can't do that.
Driverless cars could soon be very safe. Very, very safe.
So, if you were a human (ok... You are a human, I know). If you were a human and you chose to drive a car yourself. And then you hit someone, and injured or killed them, wouldn't you have behaved negligently? And if you have been negligent, and someone has died, won't the lawyers take you to the cleaners?
Now, insurance companies don't like deliberate negligence. They run a mile. You can't insure yourself to be deliberately negligent.
So as soon as we reach the tipping point where society accepts driverless cars are safer than drivers, I think insurance companies will pull out of car insurance (at least for humans). And that will be the end of hands on the wheel. Top Gear, Clarkson and Petrolheads generally - all consigned to the cultural waste bin. And why wouldn't it happen quite soon?
Personally, I won't mind this at all. Yes, I do like driving occasionally, but in India I had a driver for over two years and it was fab. A driverless car can drop you outside work and park somewhere cheap elsewhere. It picks you up from the pub late at night when you are in no fit state for anything. It takes your kids places without you. Imagine the possibilities! You want one, don't you!
So now, why don't we reimagine the future of the car. Why do you own a car when you could just buy it as a service? Why wouldn't your car profitably drive for other people when you are not using it? Why wouldn't it be electric, going off and charging up whenever it's not in use? Why wouldn't cars start behaving like trains, 'platooning' to travel more efficiently with minimal gaps? Why wouldn't they always stick to the speed limit? The cars could talk to make jams a thing of the past. In which case, why do we need a rail network?
All this change could flow from a decision by the insurance companies that driverless cars are safer than drivers.
Why won't it happen?
I think that the insurance industry is going to kill off driving as we know it. And they may do it quite soon, and quite suddenly.
We seem to be nearing the point where Google and others are going to get permission to operate driverless cars on our streets. Rigorous testing has been done, and their insurers will have made sure they think this is safe. Indeed, why isn't it going to be safer than having a human playing with their phone, or thinking about the weekend at the wheel? New Scientist has discussed about cars that 'talk' to other nearby cars to effectively 'see' around corners. Humans can't do that.
Driverless cars could soon be very safe. Very, very safe.
So, if you were a human (ok... You are a human, I know). If you were a human and you chose to drive a car yourself. And then you hit someone, and injured or killed them, wouldn't you have behaved negligently? And if you have been negligent, and someone has died, won't the lawyers take you to the cleaners?
Now, insurance companies don't like deliberate negligence. They run a mile. You can't insure yourself to be deliberately negligent.
So as soon as we reach the tipping point where society accepts driverless cars are safer than drivers, I think insurance companies will pull out of car insurance (at least for humans). And that will be the end of hands on the wheel. Top Gear, Clarkson and Petrolheads generally - all consigned to the cultural waste bin. And why wouldn't it happen quite soon?
Personally, I won't mind this at all. Yes, I do like driving occasionally, but in India I had a driver for over two years and it was fab. A driverless car can drop you outside work and park somewhere cheap elsewhere. It picks you up from the pub late at night when you are in no fit state for anything. It takes your kids places without you. Imagine the possibilities! You want one, don't you!
So now, why don't we reimagine the future of the car. Why do you own a car when you could just buy it as a service? Why wouldn't your car profitably drive for other people when you are not using it? Why wouldn't it be electric, going off and charging up whenever it's not in use? Why wouldn't cars start behaving like trains, 'platooning' to travel more efficiently with minimal gaps? Why wouldn't they always stick to the speed limit? The cars could talk to make jams a thing of the past. In which case, why do we need a rail network?
All this change could flow from a decision by the insurance companies that driverless cars are safer than drivers.
Why won't it happen?
